Long after dusk, a cardboard box stands outside a front door on a peaceful Manchester suburban street. Rain and sun have slightly faded the HelloFresh logo, which is bright green, cheery, and almost playful. A few years ago, with its carefully packed veggies and recipe cards promising an evening project for families confined indoors, that box would have been hurried inside in a matter of minutes. Almost forgotten, it now lingers on the doorstep.
Even though it’s a brief scene, it manages to convey the peculiar trajectory of HelloFresh, the Berlin-based meal kit company that once achieved remarkable success by riding the pandemic economy. The company appeared to be nearly unstoppable during the lockdown years. Suddenly confined to their homes, millions of people started cooking once more. Restaurants were closed, grocery stores were stressful, and meal kits provided something strangely reassuring: structure.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Company | HelloFresh SE |
| Founded | 2011 |
| Headquarters | Berlin, Germany |
| Business Model | Subscription-based meal-kit delivery |
| Peak Growth Period | COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021) |
| Subscribers Peak | Over 8.5 million globally |
| Recent Subscribers | About 7.1 million |
| Stock Performance | Shares once near €100, later fell below €7 |
| Key Challenges | Rising costs, declining demand, cost-of-living pressures |
| Reference | https://www.hellofreshgroup.com |
HelloFresh boxes used to arrive on a weekly basis. There were neat little bags with the labels “Step 1,” “Step 2,” and occasionally “Step 3.” Glossy paper recipe cards. tiny packets of measured spices. Everything seemed designed to teach people how to prepare dinner four nights a week, sometimes with reluctance.
For the business, the timing couldn’t have been better. HelloFresh was established in 2011 and spent years persuading customers that meal kits were the way of the future for cooking at home. Then COVID-19 hit, and the market crashed practically overnight. The company’s stock price increased to nearly €100 per share, and subscriber numbers surged over 8.5 million.
Investors appeared almost ecstatic as they watched it develop at the time. There was a perception—possibly understandable—that consumer behavior had permanently altered. Analysts predicted that meal kits would become commonplace and that people would cook more at home. The boxes weren’t just convenient; they felt modern.
However, the pandemic economy had an odd way of warping reality. Frequently, what appeared to be long-term demand was actually only transient behavior.
The numbers started to show a different picture by 2023 and 2024. Customers began to leave restaurants as lockdowns ended and they reopened. The number of subscribers fell to about 7.1 million. Forecasts for revenue were lowered. The business issued a warning that earnings would be significantly lower than anticipated.
The stock market responded swiftly—possibly violently. Following a dismal earnings forecast, HelloFresh’s stock fell more than 40%. Investors who had previously applauded the company’s expansion now appeared doubtful of the model’s continued viability.
Executives acknowledge that economics plays a role in the issue. Meal kits seemed like a practical way to deal with an odd period in history during the pandemic. However, compared to a typical grocery run, a box of pre-portioned ingredients may suddenly seem pricey during a cost-of-living crisis.
Customer surveys point to an even more unsettling situation for the business. Simply put, a lot of consumers don’t believe meal kits provide good value. While advertising awareness is high and marketing campaigns are still very visible, sentiment scores and recommendations are lower than those of other grocery brands.
It’s difficult to ignore how rapidly the story has changed. Once hailed as a culinary innovation, the same product now faces competition from more affordable supermarket options and increasingly effective food delivery apps.
The change has been apparent within HelloFresh’s operations. Conveyor belts continue to move steadily as workers assemble ingredient kits in warehouses that pack thousands of boxes every day. However, the sense of urgency is different. The narrative used to be one of growth. Efficiency is now the main topic of discussion.
Executives have tried to pivot, investing in ready-to-eat meals and other convenience products. On paper, the plan makes sense. Quick dinners are still what people want. They might simply not want to prepare them.
However, it’s unclear if the company’s momentum will be completely revived by that change. Due in part to the unreliability of recent forecasts, investors are still cautious. When a business constantly modifies its expectations, trust gradually but subtly declines.
Similar issues affect the meal-kit industry as a whole. The valuations of rival subscription services, such as Gousto, have also decreased. What was once thought to be a category that would revolutionize the grocery industry now seems more like a specialty convenience item.
However, the concept itself is not wholly defective. The allure of a prearranged dinner seemed very real during those long pandemic evenings. New recipes were discovered by families. Even the basic rhythm of cooking was rediscovered by some.
As I observe the industry today, I get the impression that meal kits were created specifically for a particular historical period characterized by lockdowns, uncertainty, and abruptly empty calendars.
The world changed once more after that moment. On the way home, people made quick grocery trips, went back to restaurants, and had office lunches. Life resumed its previous pace.
Some doorsteps are still receiving the HelloFresh boxes. However, the enthusiasm that formerly surrounded them has subsided, leaving behind a more subdued query: did the pandemic boom result in a long-lasting habit, or was it merely a transient one that happened to come in cardboard packaging?
